TECHNOLOGY TIDBITS
December 1999
Number 48
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PREDICTIONS
Let's start with a quick review of my predictions for 1999. Hits--I was on the mark with the growth of e-commerce and Linux. Near Misses--Prices of flat panel displays have dropped but not as much as I had thought they would have by now. Misses--Windows 2000. Microsoft has never released a product on schedule and Windows 2000 is no exception. After three years of waiting, what is another month or two? WordPerfect for Windows is still alive (barely) and a few PC manufacturers have started to offer it as a result of the Department of Justice lawsuit against Microsoft.

What do we have to look forward to in the year 2000? Let's start with the easiest and safest of all predictions--we will be installing Y2K software patches and fixes well into the first quarter of the New Year.

The PR and hype machines will go into overdrive with the introduction of Windows 2000 in February and Intel's newest generation of 64-bit processor chips in the second half of the year. The release of Novell's NetWare 5.1 will get lost in the Windows 2000 PR blitz. This is a shame given NetWare is a very solid server operating system and has seen its sales increase significantly in 1999.

The use of the Wireless Application Protocol (WAP) will become more wide spread in America. Already widely in use in the Scandinavian countries and Japan, WAP gives cell phones and personal digital assistants (PDA) the ability to send and receive email and text based web pages.

Your internet service provider (ISP) may also become your application service provider (ASP). Instead of buying or leasing the software you need, you will be able to log into your ISP and "rent" the software that you need. The advantages are that you don't have to purchase software that you occasionally use, you pay for only the time you use the software, you could have a wider selection of software available to you and the ASP is responsible for updating and maintaining the software. Microsoft has already announced plans to modify its software and license agreements for this purpose. The downside is you need a fast and stable Internet connection to your ISP.

Linux's growth will continue in 2000 especially as the operating system for web, email, file and print servers. Wide acceptance of Linux as the desktop PC operating system will not take place until 2001.
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Technology Tidbits is published monthly by Jerry Price, Eau Claire, Wisconsin
© 1999 Jerry W. Price

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